Published on: Mon, 11 May 2026 14:54:11 GMTOriginal Story: The best-case scenario for Taiwan from the Trump-Xi summit – PBS “`html Trump’s Taiwan Two-Step: A Borderline Case of Flip-Flopping Alright, buckle up, buttercups, because we’re diving headfirst into the murky waters of Trump’s foreign policy – specifically, his ever-evolving (read: wildly inconsistent) stance on Taiwan. PBS, bless their fact-checking hearts, decided to analyze what a Trump-Xi summit might mean for the island nation. And let me tell you, it’s less a coherent strategy and more a geopolitical guessing game. The core issue? Taiwan’s precarious position in the crosshairs of China’s “reunification” ambitions. Trump, on one hand, talks tough, hinting at defending Taiwan. On the other hand, he’s all about “deals,” and you just know Xi’s got a whole menu of “deals” that involve Taiwan becoming a very, very quiet province. Remember all that “America First” bluster? Turns out, sometimes “America First” means selling out your allies for a shiny new golf course. Or maybe just to avoid being yelled at by Xi. Who knows? With this guy, it’s always a crapshoot. Remember When… Taiwan Was Just a Bargaining Chip? Let’s rewind the clock, shall we? Specifically, to 2016. Fresh off his election win, Trump took a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen. Cue the collective gasp from the foreign policy establishment! Protocol! Decorum! The One China Policy! Trump, of course, shrugged it off, probably while simultaneously tweeting about how unfairly he was being treated by the “failing” New York Times. But here’s the kicker: shortly thereafter, he basically implied that the US commitment to the One China Policy was negotiable. That’s right, folks. He suggested he might recognize Taiwan… if China gave him something good in return. So much for unwavering support, huh? The “Best Case Scenario”: A Low Bar Indeed PBS frames it as the “best-case scenario” for Taiwan. But let’s be real, the “best-case scenario” under Trump often translates to “not the absolute worst-case scenario.” Maybe he’ll offer some tepid verbal support for Taiwan’s democracy while simultaneously cozying up to Xi and complaining about how unfair everyone is to him. Perhaps he’ll sell them some outdated military hardware (at a heavily inflated price, naturally) while simultaneously winking at Beijing. The possibilities are endless, and all equally terrifying. The article hints at the usual Trumpian dance: tough talk to appease the hawks, followed by pragmatic (read: self-serving) concessions behind closed doors. He’ll probably praise Xi as a “strong leader” (because autocrats always get his respect) and then complain about how Taiwan isn’t paying its “fair share” for US protection. It’s a script we’ve seen before, and it always ends with someone getting screwed – usually not Trump. Borderline Insanity: Where Does Taiwan Fit? So, why am I classifying this under “The Border & Extreme Vetting”? Because, ultimately, Trump’s approach to Taiwan is just another example of his transactional, zero-sum worldview. He sees everything as a negotiation, a deal to be made. Borders, alliances, democratic values – they’re all just chips on the table. He’s perfectly willing to sacrifice Taiwan’s security for a perceived advantage in trade, or just to stroke his own ego. And let’s be honest, a “deal” with China is essentially extreme vetting, only instead of vetting individual immigrants, you’re vetting an entire nation’s right to exist. It’s a gamble with incredibly high stakes, and frankly, I’m not sure Trump has the strategic depth to understand the consequences. The Actual Danger: Unpredictability The real danger for Taiwan isn’t necessarily that Trump will explicitly sell them out (although, let’s not rule it out). It’s the unpredictability. Nobody, not even Trump himself, knows what he’s going to do from one day to the next. This creates an environment of constant uncertainty, which China can exploit to its advantage. A stable, predictable US policy towards Taiwan is crucial for deterring aggression. Trump offers neither stability nor predictability. He offers chaos, wrapped in a “Make America Great Again” banner, and sold at a premium price. Snarky Takeaway So, what’s the takeaway here? Prepare for another four years of geopolitical whiplash. Trump’s Taiwan policy will be whatever benefits Trump the most in that particular moment, consequences be damned. Taiwan, like so many others, will just have to hold on tight and hope for the best. Maybe they should invest in some really, really good lobbyists. Or perhaps just learn Mandarin. It might be useful in the near future. “` Post navigation “Zero” Crossings? Sure, Jan. Walls Don’t Talk, Diplomacy Apparently Does.